US mid-term election discussion thread

Graham Tue Oct 24, 2006 at 05:43:52 PM GMT Print-friendly version Facebook

There doesn't seem to be much in the way of discussion of the US mid-term elections, so I thought I'd start an open discussion thread.



It looks like the Democrats are in a strong position to take back at least one of the two houses.

Polls are showing the Democrats in a strong place. I've listed some polling info here.

What do you think on the Democratic Party's prospects and what do you think control of the House or Senate would mean for so many of the issues that impact us here in the UK - most obviously, on the war in Iraq.


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US mid-term election discussion thread | 9 comments (9 topical)

Re: US mid-term election discussion thread (#1)

by nickparrott on Tue Oct 24, 2006 at 10:47:02 PM GMT

The Dems look good for the House, but the Senate will be a tougher trick to pull off. It won't be on the scale of previous wave elections though, just because of the gerrymandering that's occurred in the meantime.

Also, that's assuming that the GOP don't have any aces up Karl Rove's sleeve. So best to touch wood for now!

Anyone up for a mid-term election night party?!


Re: US mid-term election discussion thread (#3)

by dancrawford on Wed Oct 25, 2006 at 02:01:04 AM GMT

Nick,
We're having a huge mid-term election night knees-up in Exeter, but that might well be too far for you to come.

There's an awful lot of interest down here (given the South Coast's historic links with America as well as the high percentage of American students who study here) and I'm a little more optimistic than the doubters.

Whilst the Dems will get the House back, the Senate's difficult but moveable. The big one is the Presidential election because American voters have shown themselves to be very clever re. split ticket voting to preserve the nature of their democracy.

If anyone would be interested in a series of interviews with Labour and Democratic Party activists in the run-up to the mid terms with a few opinion pieces thrown in, I'd be happy to edit a section on Labourhome.


[ Parent ]

Re: US mid-term election discussion thread (#6)

by nickparrott on Thu Oct 26, 2006 at 09:27:48 AM GMT

Sadly, Exeter is a little out of my way! Perhaps we should arrange a running live commentary on LabHome over night...


[ Parent ]

Re: US mid-term election discussion thread (#2)

by Loz on Wed Oct 25, 2006 at 12:07:59 AM GMT

I'll probably make myself very unpopular in saying I am pro GOP and Pro Bush.

Last few days have seen some improving signs for the republicans, and I would expect them to hold the senate. Almost a certainty they'll lose the house.

Financially I believe for the remainder of this campaign I believe the GOP is set to outspend the democrats 2/1. (which in the murky world of american politics and advertising is crucial)

As for Iraq, I can't see it making much difference. The democrats can't be seen to pull the plug on funding for the war, but it will certainly make for some very partisan debates, as if there isn't enough of that already!


Re: US mid-term election discussion thread (#4)

by swatantra on Wed Oct 25, 2006 at 09:00:17 AM GMT

It'll be two years of stagnation with nobody acutually in control. Bush won't get his way in Congress or the Senate; any proposals will be blocked. A pity, the best Bush could do is start the phased withdrawal from Iraq very soon and hope things impove for the Republicans in 2008. But I'll be supporting the Dems. True Bush was clear and decisive in his objectives; trouble was he had the wrong policies on tax environment, defence, welfare, and everything else, apart from pro-life.


[ Parent ]

Re: US mid-term election discussion thread (#5)

by Graham on Wed Oct 25, 2006 at 01:39:51 PM GMT

I hope that the Democratic Party can get Senate as well as the House. The polls show too close to call races in three states with the democrats ahead in three.

It would take an exceptional election for the Dems to take the Senate, but I'm starting to wonder whether we're looking at the same kind of mood as in '94. The Democrats weren't in real trouble in the polls prior to the election, but the general mood of cynicism swept the Democrats out and the GOP in.


[ Parent ]

Re: US mid-term election discussion thread (#7)

by nickparrott on Thu Oct 26, 2006 at 11:31:34 AM GMT

Which states do you think the Dems can take?

I'd say they're set for Pennsylvania and looking good in Rhode Island, Montana and Ohio, but I'm not convinced they can take Tennessee (despite a great campaign by Ford), Missouri or Virginia.

Assuming they hold New Jersey and Maryland, which should be ok, they'd still be tantalisingly short...


[ Parent ]

Re: US mid-term election discussion thread (#8)

by reallabour on Fri Oct 27, 2006 at 07:07:17 PM GMT

Amazed to hear that somebody on a Labour blog can support Bush and the GOP. Then I remembered that our leader is a fully paid paid up neocon. Sad to hear Blair is not alone.
I have to say, if I was an elector in the USA I would find it dificuly to choose between two  right wing parties. But then I have that problem in the UK.


[ Parent ]

Re: US mid-term election discussion thread (#9)

by JR on Mon Oct 30, 2006 at 12:28:12 AM GMT

The outlook certainly looks good for the Dems. I'd bet on them taking the majority in the House but I doubt they will do nothing more than close the gap in the Senate. Of course, a good election for the Democrats at a federal level will generally be seen as favourable by most Labour members as it will likely result in policies such as a higher minimum wage, shift in direction on Iraq and it will make Congress something more than a rubber-stamping machine for Bush's ultra right-wing agenda.

However, what many people neglect to look at is the potential results of Democrats doing well at a state level. Latest predictions show that Dems will gain 6 governorships at the election (New York being one of them). It's important to remember that states have a lot of power in America and good results for Dems will make tackling poverty more realistic than if they only did well on a national level. Also, social policies such as gay marriage, pro-choice abortion stance are much more likely to succeed when Dems win at a state level.

Let's all hope the Democrats do take back America next month and it will show that Americans have finally caught up with world opinion on the worst president they've ever had.


US mid-term election discussion thread | 9 comments (9 topical)