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Labour Shifts Left | 65 comments (65 topical)

Re: Labour Shifts Left (#54)

by Glass House on Sun Jun 03, 2007 at 10:35:15 PM GMT

Dunc. I'm really shocked that you, as an educated person, don't see this.

The first post in this thread tries to imply that 'the left' is becoming more popular.

To do this, it shows polling evidence that a standard bearer of the left (McDonnell) has become more popular.

But if the fact that this is mostly only a reflection of a concentration of the left vote into one candidate (from Meacher and McDonnell to only McDonnell) renders the evidence worthlesss.

I might as well say that Meacher's support has dropped from 13% of Trade Unionists to 0% (because he wasn't mentioned in the second poll) and claim that this shows a decline in support for the left.


[ Parent ]

Re: Labour Shifts Left (#55)

by doctordunc on Sun Jun 03, 2007 at 10:47:11 PM GMT

I do see what you're saying, I'm just disputing it being of particular significance. If you re-read the original post, it does not actually 'imply' that the left 'is becoming' more popular, it states that the party and the movement is to the left of the government on a significant number of issues (based on the Yougov polling evidence). It also points to a surge in the popular vote for John McDonnell in the last month or so, which there has been (however you account for it - I actually think your earlier suggestion is correct: that John has had more exposure; one reason why Meacher may have been comparatively over-represented in the earlier poll - I don't think the poll is even close yet to the actual support that John would have had in a real contest). These are essentially personal ratings, and people won't say we can no longer pay any attention to Cameron's personal ratings come June because it's comparing with Brown rather than Blair: yes, the change of circumstances is instructive and worth noting, but it doesn't invalidate all comparisons. The other point in the original post is that John was ahead of the supposedly 'centre-left' candidate for the deputy leadership. Again that is not undermined by your point. Okay, 'shifts left' suggests a process, and discuss that with Owen by all means: I actually suspect that the movement is much as it was a month ago except that we now have a popular parliamentary spokesperson, and we have increased self-confidence.


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Re: Labour Shifts Left (#56)

by Glass House on Sun Jun 03, 2007 at 10:55:46 PM GMT

Whichever way you look at it, Owen seriously misrepresented the polling evidence.

You can't deny that "Despite being denied a contest, support for John McDonnell has surged in the space of just a month." is a hideous misrepresentation what the polls he used were saying.

"We can only imagine how much this would have increased if John had been given a platform during an actual contest." - implies that he has become more popular despite the lack of a contest. However, as a contest would necessarily have meant Meacher dropping out, the numbers would have gone up anyway (through the forced question)

I really am pretty angry about this - I know everyone has different views on this board, and I know that polls can be analysed in different ways but this is, frankly, to close to a deliberate lie for my likeing.


[ Parent ]

Re: Labour Shifts Left (#57)

by grimupnorth on Sun Jun 03, 2007 at 11:45:28 PM GMT

Glass, I think you are angry because the left IS on the up within the Party.Not having a contest, actually, probably has increased John McD's popularity ( along with the media coverage he got ) because many members are aggrieved, feel sympathetic, hate bullying tactics etc etc. As, more importantly now, ordinary members are clearly way to the left of Brown on policy then that can only continue to be the case - and more so. What Brown couldn't wipe out was 10 months of campaigning,and the fact that all the issues are still "live" and that the left now has an identifiable champion whose Real Labour policies are more popular than his right-wing, authoritarian proposals.You may not like it,but it's true. Even in the original poll, McDonnell hadmore suport than Clarke or Meacher. And, no, I can't see uber-Blairites voting hard left.


[ Parent ]

Re: Labour Shifts Left (#58)

by Glass House on Sun Jun 03, 2007 at 11:51:48 PM GMT

Are you deliberately avoiding the point of my posts?

Jonesy deliberately misled this board about polling figures? don't you give a damn?


[ Parent ]

Re: Labour Shifts Left (#59)

by Glass House on Sun Jun 03, 2007 at 11:58:11 PM GMT

And, for what must be the thousandth time, what is your evidence that "the left is on the rise"?

Can you point to ANY evidence other than anecdotal nonesense (or Jonesy's misrepresentation of polling evidence)?


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Re: Labour Shifts Left (#61)

by grimupnorth on Mon Jun 04, 2007 at 09:47:01 AM GMT

Whether you like it or not ( you obviously don't) this poll clearly shows most Party members are to the left of the leadership.One example. 66 per cent want to increase the top rate of taxation. The rest have already been referred to and am not going to repeat myself.Two months ago John McDonnell scored nine per cent in a YouGov poll - now it's 18 per cent. So stop whingeing and accusing people of lying. Not everything or everyone can be manipulated and bullied into toeing the New Labour line.


[ Parent ]

Re: Labour Shifts Left (#62)

by Glass House on Mon Jun 04, 2007 at 10:05:54 AM GMT

I'm not trying to bully anyone. I'm simply saying that, to count as evidence of a trend, you would have to show comparative figures from some time ago to show that the membership have moved leftward since then.

Otherwise, what's to stop me from coming along and saying that the Labour party used to be very left wing and that, therefore, these figures show that the party is more evenly spit between left and right than it used to be - therefore 'proving' that the party is moving rightwards.

You said that the party was shifting leftwards, but these figures only show current attitudes. Without comparative figures, it is impossible to know whether these attitudes are more leftwing or more rightwing than they used to be.


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Re: Labour Shifts Left (#63)

by jkitleft on Mon Jun 04, 2007 at 10:14:11 AM GMT

I'll get slaughtered for this, but I agree with almost everyone, and you know how that makes me mad. Glass, you're right. It was different polling data, different question, different candidates etc. I do think however, that the other polling data i.e. the questions on trident, tax rates etc. shows that the left are on the up.


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Re: Labour Shifts Left (#64)

by Glass House on Mon Jun 04, 2007 at 10:40:07 AM GMT

But the questions on trident, tax rates etc can only show that "the left are on the up" if there is similar data showing that members used to be less against trident and less for higher tax rates i.e. movement toward more leftish positions.

Maybe such data exists and maybe the left ARE on the rise - but my point is that this polling data is not evidence of a trend without another data set to compare it with.


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Re: Labour Shifts Left (#60)

by Glass House on Mon Jun 04, 2007 at 12:00:16 AM GMT

And, while we're at it, what one Earth do you mean by "uber-Blairites voting hard left". What the hell are you talking about?


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Labour Shifts Left | 65 comments (65 topical)
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